Related posts:

1. Apple Thoughts and Perdictions Grab Bag
2. Predictions on the upcoming Apple Tablet
3. Reflections on the Apple Newton MessagePad Failure on the Eve of the iPad
4. Chicago

The annoying marketing gone crazy technology looking for a problem award goes to 3D TV

This year it seems everyone was talking about 3D TV’s with CNet, Engadget and others all talking about 3D tv’s like they were the second coming of Christ. I’m not sure who’s good graces they were trying to get into but let me say what everyone else is secretly thinking: 3D TV’s are stupid. Despite the obviousness of this, it didn’t stop CES from announcing the Panasonic VT25 as “Best in Show“. It just doesn’t make sense to make everything we watch 3D. I don’t want to watch the evening news, Old School or any movie with Matthew McConaughey in 3D. Ever.

And then there are the glasses. If you don’t have glasses on, then you get a headache. Anyone who walks in the room while you are watching a 3D show is going to get insta-frustrated. Oh and you look like a total idiot. The only reason this works in a theater is because everyone looks like an idiot so everyone keeps their mouth shut.

No, no one is going to run out and buy a new TV for this unless they have money to burn. Here is the big secret however that no one wants you to know, every TV will soon be a 3D “capable” TV and if your TV can refresh faster than 96Hz already (ideally 120Hz), it might already be ready (the HDMI 1.4 requirement might be a hiccup). This feature is going to be thrown in for free by the end of the year and right now is just a marketing gimmick to justify the cost of higher end TV’s. I expect Vizio to be carrying 3D capable TV’s at Costco around the middle of the year for the same price you would pay today for a regular TV. Unless of course  the TV manufacturers try and create some sort of 3D hardware standards monopoly which is likely because that’s just what hardware companies do. For example everyone is pushing their “Full HD 3D” solution which requires shutter glasses vs. the cheap things you wore when you saw Avatar 3D at the IMAX theater last weekend.

The real winners here will likely end up being the content providers who will try and sell you 3D versions of movies you already have.

The totally pointless but yet I want one so bad award goes to the Parrot AR.Drone

You know something is going to be a success when people are already talking about all the scary things you can do with something and the Parrot AR.Drone has all kinds of awesome scary tricks. Like hovering outside your neighbors windows recording video all controlled by your iPhone scary. The moment you can equip these things with missiles is when I suspect the fun will come to an end but until then, I want one.  Unless this product ends up being somehow fatally flawed and not living up to the hype expect every kid on the planet to be begging their parents for one. Parents everywhere are going to be rushing out to get these things too because they all secretly want this thing as well.

The should have gotten more attention because it’s going to change our life award goes to the RCA Airnergy Power System

Two words: Wireless Power. The RCA Airnergy system sucks up WiFi signals and turns it into electrical current. Let me say that again. WiFi signals go in, power comes out. Despite making everyone suddenly get worried that the WiFi signals in their house are frying their brain (it doesn’t, chill out) the idea of wireless power has the potential to change our lives forever. Think about the sort of devices that become possible when you suddenly don’t have to worry about plugging them in or charging them. I suspect this product is only the beginning of  a whole series of new technologies that will branch out to absorb all kinds of energy and convert it to power. Despite the utter coolness and trans-formative nature of this technology it’s getting almost no attention right now. This either means it’s too good to be true or people just can’t believe it. Kudos to Engadget for also saying what was also on everyone else’s mind: The Airnergy gives RCA a reason to exist.

And the best of CES award goes to…

The product that is going to make the entire CES event seem like a distant and pointless memory, the upcoming Apple tablet. According to John Paczkowski over at AllThingsD the announcement is planned for January 27th 2010. I still stand by my predictions that I made back in August as well as my expectations that the new tablet will be called the Apple MacBook Touch.  Stay tuned!

Related articles by Zemanta

• RCA Airnergy promises usable power generated from Wi-Fi signals. Possible? (crunchgear.com)
• RCA’s Wifi “power harvester” (boingboing.net)
• ‘Airnergy’ promises charging over Wi-Fi (guardian.co.uk)
• Is RCA’s Airnergy Snake Oil? (ask.slashdot.org)
• Alt.CES: RCA’s Wi-Fi “Power Harvester” Snakeoil? (makezine.com)
• Charge your BlackBerry battery using Wi-Fi signal (bbgeeks.com)
• RCA Airnergy Charges Gadgets with Nothing But Wifi Signals [Chargers] (gizmodo.com)

Related posts:

1. Predictions on the upcoming Apple Tablet

First there are a few things I think that will hold true no matter what.

• Apple is not going to call this thing the “Apple Tablet”.
  • Nor are they going to call it the  iTablet or anything even remotely similar to that. There is no reason to call this a tablet when all the tablet computers that have preceded it have sucked. Why associate this product with that legacy?
• Release date depends on what happens [edited aug 14th]
  • I thought more about the possibilities and now think that the release date is dependent on which posability comes true. If Apple is pursuing the iPod Touch XL idea, then I think they are going to shoot for Nov. of 2009, if it’s the MacBook Touch, then I think early 2010 is more realistic.
• They will release in November
  • Most of us know that November is the ideal time to release a product for the holiday season. It’s too obvious to not assume that Apple is gearing up to take advantage of this in the hopes that they have the must have gadget of the holiday season. Apple does have a media event scheduled for September but don’t be fooled, this event will focus on iTunes and Apple music and video store advancements.
• It will come with an Ecosystem
  • To support the low cost point they are going to be shooting for there will be a fully baked ecosystem of peripherals, software and solutions announced at the same time. It won’t just be a new iPod or MacBook. Expect that all AppStore applications will run on it and a new category of apps to be announced. Part of this ecosystem means that it will also integrate with your existing Apple products such as a iMac or MacBook as well as the Apple TV and introduce a whole new way of interacting with your computer and devices.
• Hardware Basics
  • No matter how powerful or large the device is, or what types of applications it runs, it’s going to have good battery life, a microphone, camera, bluetooth and WiFi.

Beyond those four common things however my two predictions start to diverge. Below are my two predictions for the upcoming Apple tablet and the reasons behind my thoughts. Let me know in the comments which one you think is most likely to become a reality.

Possibility 1: The Apple iPod Touch XL

Cost: About $599-$699 dollars, release in November 2009

Apple isn’t building this thing for computer users or create a new class of computer to sell along side they MacBooks., they want to create a new category all together that can sit at the top of their iPod product line. To do that they are not going to call this thing the “Apple Tablet” or the iTablet or anything even remotely similar to that. There is no reason to call this a tablet when all the tablet computers that have preceded it have sucked. Why associate this product with that legacy?

If Apple goes this direction and I think that there is a slightly better chance that the iPod Touch XL is the more likely of the two options then the CrunchPad is in for even more of a challenge. I think the idea of a Touch XL is more likely because of all the rumors about form factor and design pointing in this direction and The iPod Touch product line is well past due in getting any attention. This all makes me think the Touch team has been focused on a new product. On the flip side I want Apple to make their new device something more capable, hence let me introduce possibility 2, the MacBook Touch.

Possibility 2: The Apple MacBook Touch

Cost:$799-899 dollars, release in early 2010

This will be Apples answer to the Netbook craze and the markets demand for a lower cost Apple computer. Expect Apple to offer at least two models to choose from with different CPU/RAM and Storage options. Apple will also release some sort of monitor/peripheral docking  option perhaps like this at the same time as an accessory. This form factor and docking station will make this the perfect computer for ultra mobile users such as students and business users who travel a lot.

No matter which option you think is going to come true, either device will do what Apple always does well. It will be a very sexy device that offers a great user experience and is perfect for watching movies on the plane, browsing the web or banging out a few notes or e-mails with an on-screen keyboard will be “good enough” to keep most people happy. Or so we all hope, only time will tell, what do you think?

Related posts:

1. Apple Thoughts and Perdictions Grab Bag
2. Quick thoughts for the day
3. The Apple TV – Apple’s Secret Weapon
4. The Impending Failure of the TechCrunch CrunchPad
5. Reflections on the Apple Newton MessagePad Failure on the Eve of the iPad

Let me be clear, I’m not rooting for this failure. The folks at Fusion Garage have clearly put a lot of energy into the device but the stars are just not aligned. Predicting the failure of the CrunchPad was not as easy as my perdiction of the Palm Foleo failure mind you. There isn’t just one or two large issues that stick out like the Foleo but rather it’s a cascade of multiple events and minor mistakes that contribute to the CrunchPads coming failure.

This cascading failure effect is best studied in the airline industry but the same effect applies to other complex system and the creation of a new computing tablet is no different. Let’s review the design and product decisions and market observations of the CrunchPad to see the cascade effect in action and perhaps we might find a way to save the CrunchPad.

CrunchPad design

The CrunchPad was originally billed as a low cost, drop dead simple to use device for one purpose – surfing the web. That’s a really good starting point  but how committed are they to this goal? As we read more about the original ideas behind the CrunchPad and the posts that would come later you start to realize not nearly enough. Almost as soon as simplicity was the stated goal does Michael start adding things. I just need it to run Firefox, OK and then maybe Skype would be nice too, oh and put it on Linux, add a camera, some speakers, WiFi, a USB port…blah blah blah… OK stop. Yes these are simple things, but they add up. How did the original simplicity design goal go out the window and quickly devolve into a technology discussion? This is great for geeks, but pointless when creating a new gadget. At the end of the day I don’t care what OS it’s running, I don’t care what browser, I don’t care about ports or CPU or USB or anything else if it just does what I want it too. Don’t believe me? the iPhone didn’t run a mainstream OS, browser, have a multitude of plugs or ports and didn’t even advertise what CPU they used, it just worked and pretty much everyone now has one.

So how did they do in the end? I dug up all the specifications I could find and here is what I found.

CrunchPad Specs

• Low cost
  • Originally billed at $200 the price is now rumored to have risen to $400. This is about the price of a Netbook, not good.
• Intel Atom 1.6Ghz
  • Who cares? Can you tell me if it’s snappy and doesn’t lag? Watching the YouTube videos suggest that it’s not, notice the slow screen refresh and the choppy video performance, not good.
• 1GB of RAM
  • Who cares? Do my web apps run fine? How many pages can I open at a time?
• 4GB of flash memory
  • Seems kinda small, with local storage in HTML 5 or Google Gears supporting apps growing this could become a problem. Oh wait I’m talking like a geek again. Who cares? Can I run all my apps? Do I need more?
• Linux as the OS
  • A big HUGE who cares? I would even argue that this makes the device less attractive. Why? Because most people hear the word Linux and they think “Ugh, complex thing for geeks”. Look I’ve been using Linux since I first complied my own Slackware kernel in 1996 but when I play with Ubuntu or Fedora today I have to ask “WTF Linux people? Haven’t you had enough time to make this s%#t work right?”. Linux is awesome for my server, not my desktop, and for a no brains tablet, I’m nervous.
• Boot directly into a custom (WebKit based) browser
  • WebKit, fine choice. I thought you were going to use Firefox? Oh wait I forgot that I DON’T CARE. Does it render web pages right and just work?
• Small OS Foot Print (100MB)
  • This is a classic example of where a device manufacture takes one of their problems and markets it as a benefit and solution to some consumer problem. What problem exactly are you solving for me that requires a small OS foot print? Right…exactly.
• WiFi
  • Awesome…because without this it would just be pointless. You might want to add Bluetooth (but only if you remove a bunch of other stuff I list below)
• Support for 3g/mobile broadband
  • Nifty, hope you are negotiating a subsidy deal with the phone companies or that the electronics for all this are internal because having a 3G card sticking out the side doesn’t count.
• Express Card slot
  • There is no proof of this except from what I can make out in the pictures (which show one). I hope I’m wrong because of my previous point. Adding this violates the simplicity principal.
• Keyboard and mouse support
  • Why the hell do I want this? This thing isn’t a computer, it’s a handheld web tablet. Oh right the geeks demanded it, bad motivation.
• USB Port
  • Pointless. If this is a simple to use web tablet why do I need to be plugging in peripherals? Violates the simplicity directive.
• Available in 4 colors
  • It should be in any color the customer wants, as long as that color is black. Simplicity! Just because the factory can crank out multiple colors without introducing much cost doesn’t mean it’s a good idea. Is there a market reason for multiple colors? Just because you can build it doesn’t mean you should.
• Weigh under 3 pounds (2.64?)
  • Sounds about right, I hope most of it is devoted to battery.
• 12.77 by 7.83 inches, and 0.74 inch thick
  • That’s just .02 inches smaller than the thickness of a MacBook Air and that thing has a keyboard and hard drive, so this seems a little large to me. As for the other dimensions that means it’s not as big as standard US letter piece of paper, this seems like a mistake to me.
• 12″ capacitative touchscreen
  • I only want to know one thing. Multi-Touch? Yes or no? So far, the videos all say no. Not good.
• Possible video camera and microphone
  • Sure fine, but do I really need it? Simplicity!

Unknown Important Details

There are a few important details that have yet to be revealed, but the fact that they haven’t been mentioned up front worries me a lot. The following items should be top of mind to anyone thinking about buying a touchpad.

• Battery life
  • This has to be stellar, I mean really really stellar. Like 8 hours of use stellar
• Responsiveness of the touch screen
  • The difference between a touch screen that works and a product that makes you want to throw it out the window is so tiny that if this isn’t done right people will be throwing these things out the window or more likely, just not buying them
• Multi-Touch support
  • Yeah, there are patent issues here, but if it’s missing people will be asking why
• Security and automated updating capabilities
  • How secure is this thing? Does it keep itself up to date? Do I have to do anything? This needs to be all automated 100% away from the user.

CrunchPad Target Customer Profile

I don’t really know what the target customer is but since it’s being designed by technology journalist and geek and has been so far only marketed to geeks through the TechCrunch blog lets assume for the moment that the target customer is the TechCrunch reader. I’m sure they know a lot more about their readers than I do so I won’t spend much time on this but off the top of my head I would say this makes the target customer:

• Technology savvy
• Disposable Income
• Want’s to stay on the couch. Too lazy to use the computer in the den.

This does not sound like a mass market customer profile to me, it’s definitely a profitable niche but will it support the kind of volume necessary to market and sell a consumer electronics product? I don’t know these answers, but I’m assuming they are thinking about this one a lot and is likely why the cost has gone up. The big problem here however is most geeks I know when they want to stay on the couch just pull out their SmartPhone which is good enough for them. If they are going to buy something that displaces this, it’s going to have a coolness factor all it’s own but most importantly, be cheap.

Market Observations

This is the big one, there has been a lot of interesting things going on since the CrunchPad was first announced in July of 2008, and in the case of Apple, even before it was first announced.

• Google announces ChromeOS
  • This one is HUGE. I originally was thinking that Google and TechCrunch had been working together from the start and that the CrunchPad was going to be the first device to sport the ChromeOS. Then I did my homework and realized this was just too good to be true. If however it was true it would be the greatest PR coup ever launched for both ChromeOS and the CrunchPad. It’s not too late to make this a reality either and it’s almost too perfect a union to not pass up. The challenge will be for the CrunchPad to fight the built up “technology inertia” they have already created for themselves (blog post on this concept coming soon) and throw away a lot of work already done to pursue ChromeOS.
• Apple reportedly working on tablet
  • lots of interesting patent applications from apple on this (tablet docking station as well as some sort of netbook dock in Jan 2008) not to mention huge rumors around the development of a Apple tablet computer. Apple understands simplicity in design and if the rumors are true will likely give the CrunchPad a run for it’s money. At the same time I actually expect Apple to release a device that is more functional than a simple tablet and not as simple as what a device like the CrunchPad could be. It will also almost certainly be at a higher price point, likely around 800 bucks. This is creates an opportunity for CrunchPad but also means that customers will likely wait to see what apple releases first before they buy something.
• Lack of CrunchPad market ecosystem
  • It’s not enough to just be a web surfing tablet. There needs to be an ecosystem created around this product that is released at the same time. I’ve got lots of ideas on what this could involve but the point is that no one seems to be thinking about it, not good for the CrunchPad.
• Lack of experience in the consumer electronics industry
  • I am on the fence about this one. Apple had zero experience in the mobile phone business and they figured it out. Smart people can do anything. At the same time, it’s not exactly a downhill race for them here either.

Summary to failure

So lets add up all these small cuts and see if we have enough to kill the patient:

1. Not low cost
2. Not holding true to the simplicity principal
3. Too focused on geeking out and talking about the technology
4. Too many colors.
5. No one is talking about critical important factors like battery life and security
6. Target market might be too small to support it
7. Google ChromeOS will overshadow any work they do on their platform and browser
8. Apple rumors of tablet will keep customers from buying and then they might just buy the Apple tablet instead

I think all of these things add up to only one outcome: market failure of the CrunchPad. However not all is lost, I think there are a few changes that CrunchPad could make that would better the odds of success.

Recommendations to CrunchPad

It’s going to be costly. The CrunchPad folks are going to have to throw away a lot of work and doing that is going to be very very hard to do. It’s a huge risk already and massive changes this late in the project are hard to swallow. However when the alternative is what I think is certain failure, the choice should be an easy. Unfortunately I don’t expect the CrunchPad folks to walk away from their work and make such hard decisions. However, Michael if you or any of the CrunchPad team is reading this here is what I recommend you think about.

1. Abandon your OS and browser platform, embrace Google ChromeOS immediately. The simultaneous release of the CrunchPad and ChromeOS will generate so much buzz it will be an unstoppable marketing force.
2. Remove everything from the CrunchPad that doesn’t need to be there. USB ports, express card slots, etc… Make the device as simple as you possibly can. Be ruthless.
3. Focus on battery life, ease of use, security and a broader market
4. Get the cost under $200 dollars otherwise Apple will eat your lunch

So CrunchPad guys, I’m sorry that it’s likely not going to work out. I was rooting for you because I’m a geek at heart but when I started thinking about everything I felt I had to be the bearer of bad news. I hope you don’t take it personal. Invite me up sometime and maybe we can work together to change the future because someone is going to get the web tablet right and sell a million of them, but right now I don’t think it’s going to be you.

Related posts:

1. Predictions on the upcoming Apple Tablet
2. Reflections on the Apple Newton MessagePad Failure on the Eve of the iPad
3. CES Round Up – Winners, losers and what you missed