Silvexis » Apple

Reflections on the Apple Newton MessagePad Failure on the Eve of the iPad

Erik — Fri, 02 Apr 2010 17:43:49 +0000

As I hold on for the long wait for my iPad 3G I was inspired to pull out my Apple Newton MessagePad 120 to baseline how far Apple has come since the Newton was first released in 1993. I was amazed at how unintuitive it was to use and thought about how our perceptions and expectations of a handheld user interface have been transformed by the iPhone. Putting my thoughts into a 1993 state of mind for a moment I imagined what it was like using this thing so long ago. One thing stuck out like a sore thumb to me: The MessagePad seemed utterly and completely impractical by even 1993 standards.

I believe that its failure was guaranteed no matter how powerful its designers made it. It wasn’t because of the applications or even its form factor, no its size and note taking, calendar, contacts and other apps including eMail capabilities were all fine for their day. It all came down to the user experience. Using the stylus with the on screen keyboard or worse, the built in handwriting recognition was unbearable. This highlights something that technology companies regularly forget and it’s why Steve Jobs killed the Newton when he took back control of Apple: The user experience matters. A lot.

The Palm Pilot with its graffiti was first, then the BlackBerry with its thumb friendly keyboard and then the iPhone with its quick responding multi-touch screen. At each stage the innovation wasn’t the devices capabilities, plenty of devices have done what they did before them. The innovation was the user experience that enabled the technology and made it accessible. The iPhone’s multi-touch interface made it a usable applications platform and everyday device, the app store just greased the wheels. Had Apple released the iPhone with a thumb keyboard or stylus it would have been just as successful (and boring) as every mobile device that had come before it.

So as I wait now for my iPad to arrive and I read all the articles for and against it I think most people focusing on battery life, flash support or built in capabilities are missing the point. The real innovation that will decide the iPad’s success will come down to only one thing, the iPads user experience and how successfully it bridges the gap between humans and technology.

Quick thoughts for the day

Erik — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 20:03:50 +0000

Read a rumor today that the upcoming Apple tablet might be called the iPad. I predicted it would be called the MacBook Tablet but I have to admit the iPad sounds compelling. It’s too close to iPod for me to like however. Rule one in marketing: Differentiate. My guess is that Apple is registering names of possible similar named products to avoid future problems.
I will be presenting “Your Applications from Backdoors: How to Secure Your Business Critical Applications from Time Bombs, Backdoors & Data“ at the OWASP Chicago meeting on Feb 2nd at 6:00 swing by (RSVP Req’d) for Pizza, Beer and Application Security discussions in the windy city.

CES Round Up – Winners, losers and what you missed

Erik — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 20:31:51 +0000

I generally stay away from thinking about CES until the week is up and I can look at the big picture. For all the whining that goes on about FUD in the Information Security industry nowhere is there more hype and hyperbole than the annual consumer electronics show (CES) in Las Vegas. Here is our take on the events and products highlighted at this years CES event.

The annoying marketing gone crazy technology looking for a problem award goes to 3D TV

This year it seems everyone was talking about 3D TV’s with CNet, Engadget and others all talking about 3D tv’s like they were the second coming of Christ. I’m not sure who’s good graces they were trying to get into but let me say what everyone else is secretly thinking: 3D TV’s are stupid. Despite the obviousness of this, it didn’t stop CES from announcing the Panasonic VT25 as “Best in Show“. It just doesn’t make sense to make everything we watch 3D. I don’t want to watch the evening news, Old School or any movie with Matthew McConaughey in 3D. Ever.

And then there are the glasses. If you don’t have glasses on, then you get a headache. Anyone who walks in the room while you are watching a 3D show is going to get insta-frustrated. Oh and you look like a total idiot. The only reason this works in a theater is because everyone looks like an idiot so everyone keeps their mouth shut.

No, no one is going to run out and buy a new TV for this unless they have money to burn. Here is the big secret however that no one wants you to know, every TV will soon be a 3D “capable” TV and if your TV can refresh faster than 96Hz already (ideally 120Hz), it might already be ready (the HDMI 1.4 requirement might be a hiccup). This feature is going to be thrown in for free by the end of the year and right now is just a marketing gimmick to justify the cost of higher end TV’s. I expect Vizio to be carrying 3D capable TV’s at Costco around the middle of the year for the same price you would pay today for a regular TV. Unless of course the TV manufacturers try and create some sort of 3D hardware standards monopoly which is likely because that’s just what hardware companies do. For example everyone is pushing their “Full HD 3D” solution which requires shutter glasses vs. the cheap things you wore when you saw Avatar 3D at the IMAX theater last weekend.

The real winners here will likely end up being the content providers who will try and sell you 3D versions of movies you already have.

The totally pointless but yet I want one so bad award goes to the Parrot AR.Drone

You know something is going to be a success when people are already talking about all the scary things you can do with something and the Parrot AR.Drone has all kinds of awesome scary tricks. Like hovering outside your neighbors windows recording video all controlled by your iPhone scary. The moment you can equip these things with missiles is when I suspect the fun will come to an end but until then, I want one. Unless this product ends up being somehow fatally flawed and not living up to the hype expect every kid on the planet to be begging their parents for one. Parents everywhere are going to be rushing out to get these things too because they all secretly want this thing as well.

The should have gotten more attention because it’s going to change our life award goes to the RCA Airnergy Power System

Two words: Wireless Power. The RCA Airnergy system sucks up WiFi signals and turns it into electrical current. Let me say that again. WiFi signals go in, power comes out. Despite making everyone suddenly get worried that the WiFi signals in their house are frying their brain (it doesn’t, chill out) the idea of wireless power has the potential to change our lives forever. Think about the sort of devices that become possible when you suddenly don’t have to worry about plugging them in or charging them. I suspect this product is only the beginning of a whole series of new technologies that will branch out to absorb all kinds of energy and convert it to power. Despite the utter coolness and trans-formative nature of this technology it’s getting almost no attention right now. This either means it’s too good to be true or people just can’t believe it. Kudos to Engadget for also saying what was also on everyone else’s mind: The Airnergy gives RCA a reason to exist.

And the best of CES award goes to…

The product that is going to make the entire CES event seem like a distant and pointless memory, the upcoming Apple tablet. According to John Paczkowski over at AllThingsD the announcement is planned for January 27th 2010. I still stand by my predictions that I made back in August as well as my expectations that the new tablet will be called the Apple MacBook Touch. Stay tuned!

RCA Airnergy promises usable power generated from Wi-Fi signals. Possible? (crunchgear.com)
RCA’s Wifi “power harvester” (boingboing.net)
‘Airnergy’ promises charging over Wi-Fi (guardian.co.uk)
Is RCA’s Airnergy Snake Oil? (ask.slashdot.org)
Alt.CES: RCA’s Wi-Fi “Power Harvester” Snakeoil? (makezine.com)
Charge your BlackBerry battery using Wi-Fi signal (bbgeeks.com)
RCA Airnergy Charges Gadgets with Nothing But Wifi Signals [Chargers] (gizmodo.com)

Predictions on the upcoming Apple Tablet

Prediction Confirmed: Big changes coming to iTunes in 2010

Erik — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 15:07:41 +0000

Earlier this week I predicted that the La La acquisition by Apple was the start of an entirely new in the cloud online strategy for the iTunes music and media store. A few days ago the Wall Street Journal (link) confirmed my predictions by reporting that according to sources familiar with the strategy, Apple was “exploring an overhaul of the way it sells and stores music” with changes coming as early as next year. AppleInsider also suggested an more online future for iTunes but was not as specific as the WSJ.

The WSJ article explains that several of the La La executives will be leading critical aspects of the iTunes service which I think is a very positive sign and one that suggests Apple is serious about injecting fresh thinking into service. It’s a short but good article that validates a few of my predictions on how I think iTunes will transform itself in 2010 and a topic you can be sure I’ll keep a close eye on.

The Apple TV – Apple’s Secret Weapon

Erik — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 23:35:23 +0000

Have you been wondering what are Apple’s plans for the Apple TV?

Recently Apple dropped the price of the 160GB model by $100 and discontinued the 40GB model fueling the rumor mill that changes to what Steve Jobs has described as a pet project are forthcoming. Here is just some of the coverage and commentary:

Wired wrote a peice titled “Why Apple TV Must Evolve to Avoid Extinction” and referenced industry analysts James McQuivey of Forrester and John Barrett of Park Associates. Together they claimed that the Apple TV didn’t have much life left in it, that Apple needed to dramatically improve the product to compete and suggested things like a Tivo-like DVR feature, Movie and TV show subscription options and a Blu-Ray player.
David Coursey blogging for PC World suggested that a “New Apple TV For Christmas Seems Likely” and suggested the new iTunes LP format would be a big boost to the platform. David also suggested that the price drop had one goal: clear the warehouses of existing Apple TVs to make room for a new model that he expects in time for Christmas.
AppleInsider also supported the idea that the new iTunes LP format seems aimed at the Apple TV with some detailed analysis on the new format and the underlying Apple technology called TuneKit.

I agree with David that a new Apple TV model is coming and I give it a 80% chance of landing this fall for the holiday shopping season. The canceling of the 40GB model and the price drop does scream inventory purge and check out this recent conversation at an apple store, something certainly seems up. As for what this new Apple TV will look like however all of the predictions on what will be coming in the next Apple TV seem to be missing the mark, some in the extreme.

Blu-ray is never coming to the Apple TV

Blu-ray may have just won the format war but in my opinion it’s already dead on arrival. Delivered right at the apex of physical media it is now set to be eclipsed by online access to video and I predict that the era of physical media is set to expire within 3-5 years. With HD content appearing online from Netflix, Apple, Microsoft and others there is increasingly less and less reason to buy a disc.

With most home movies rented, not purchased, the days of the disc are coming to an end and the reasons for this sneakernet holdout won’t remain for much longer. The final nail in the coffin is the obvious one: Blu-ray does nothing to help the Apple online store giving Apple every reason to hasten Blu-rays demise, not support it.

An Apple TV DVR isn’t coming…yet

Apple has eschewed broadcast media for two reasons. First, like Blu-ray, HD cable and satellite broadcasts have their own complicated and expensive licensing costs and certification “bag of hurt” that Blu-Ray does. It’s these licensing issues that has kept PC CableCard decoders off the market for example although there is supposedly a PCI-E tuner on the way in 2010.

The second reason is because Apple hates kludges and the DVR is the mother of all kludges (bear with me here). The TiVo may have changed how millions watch TV forever but DVR’s exist to address a problem with the medium, namely you can’t pause and remind broadcast media. The future however is content that is bought, sold and downloaded online with the days of advertising interruptions coming to and end and I think Apple is content to wait it out until this future arrives.

There is one snag however that Apple needs to figure out how to deal with: live broadcasts. Live news and sports are not going away and once live TV is easily delivered over the Internet then you can expect to see a DVR option but until then the Apple TV will likely continue to maintain “pet project” status at Apple. If Apple starts to make inroads to solving the live broadcast problem however, this will the key indicator that Apple is getting ready to take on TV.

Why the Apple TV is Apple’s Secret Weapon

So if the Apple TV is only a pet project today and can’t replace your cable or satellite box because of live broadcasts what good is the Apple TV? I believe the Apple TV is a Trojan horse designed to slowly find it’s way into living rooms and eventually build critical mass. Supporting this theory is the fact that Apple is breaking even on the device which means that the goal here isn’t to make money selling the Apple TV, but rather to make money off of the market the devices are meant to create. Expect the Apple TV to slowly build momentum in the coming months if not years but keep a watch out for the following triggers that will signal Apple is getting ready to launch this weapon:

Apple addresses or make hints of addressing live broadcasts – pause/play/record for Internet broadcasts will likely arrive at the same time
Resolves the issues between the Apple TV and the Mac mini – Why buy an Apple TV when you can build one with DVR capabilities?

What to expect in the meantime for Apple TV

In the meantime as we wait for the Apple TV master plan to be revealed you can expect a slow trickle of new features that will keep the media from forgetting about this little device. Here is the shortlist of features I’m expecting to emerge within a year or less:

Fully featured online application, music and video store with “in the cloud” storage of purchases. (You won’t need to sync up with a PC or Mac to get the most of your purchase)
Online App Store for Apple TV and MacBook Touch applications
Gaming platform using WiFi based controllers as well as some very unique games and applications that make use of the iPhone/iPod Touch
Subscription based rentals for movies and TV shows
And the obligatory Increased capacity and processing power

So those are my predictions for Apple’s pet project. No Blu-Ray, no DVR(yet) but still a lot of interesting things to come. My recommendation to anyone keeping watch over Apple is to keep an eye on the Apple TV. It’s a precursor for things to come and a strategy that has yet been fully revealed.

This isn’t going to end well for Palm

Erik — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 12:00:39 +0000

Does anyone remember Real Networks and ultimately what happened to them? It’s a history lesson that Plam could learn from. During the early years of the online music battle a cat and mouse game between Apple and Real Networks broke out when Real built a player capable of playing music purchased on iTunes. Apple responded by breaking Real’s technology with every iTunes update and Real responded by fixing it with each update of their own.

Eventually Apple won out and customers grew tired of having a working solution one day and a broken one the next. The lesson learned from this story however was clear: business models that depend on you hacking your competitors products are a really bad idea.

Fast forward to today and Apple finds itself in the same position again, only this time it’s the Palm Pre with it’s dependency on hacking iTunes. It’s not even clear to me why the Pre needs to sync directly with iTunes this way as there is plenty of software out there that can interface with the iTunes library. Palm should put this misguided strategy behind them and create its own software for keeping everything in sync otherwise I guarantee you, this isn’t going to end well for Palm.

Apple Thoughts and Perdictions Grab Bag

Erik — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 19:47:29 +0000

A lot of friends have been asking be what I think will be released Sept. 9th by Apple. Will it be a new Apple TV? Blu-Ray support? New iPods? the iTablet? I don’t expect any of these things other than the chance of new iPods, but I’ve got a few ideas of my own, each is only half baked at this point but I thought I would share them to get my readers involved in the brainstorm.

Things that are not going to happen:

There will be no Blu-Ray support in AppleTV or for that mater any Apple product, ever. Apple is finished with physical media as far as entertainment media goes. It’s clear there will never be a replacement to Blu-Ray because it’s the last of it’s kind. Why buy disks when I can click and have it on my TV in a few seconds? Blu-Ray is never going to happen. Just buy a Apple TV and watch whatever you want without having to keep a stack of discs laying around. I’ve already ripped all my DVD’s and used Handbrake to turn them into movies I could upload onto my Apple TV, why haven’t you?
I’ve already made my peace on the Apple Tablet, you can read that here

Things that might happen:

Apple is going to announce a new and improved package for albums that improves the “album” experience. I think this is fine but if it’s anything like the crap that you got when buying an “enhanced” CD then it’s going to be a big yawn. Supposedly something like this is exactly what the music industry is working on. When are they going to realize that they need to just stick to the music and leave the rest to companies that understand the Internet?
Apple is going to announce it’s upgrading a portion of it’s music collection to better than CD quality and will be releasing many future albums with better sound quality as well. This idea just entered my head. I can’t even begin to explain why I even think this is a possibility. I just see a pattern forming around music quality. The interest in good, high quality music and recordings is making a come back (for example 2008 vinyl record sales were up 37% over the previous year). As far as I can tell I’m the only one who is making this prediction so I’m going out on a limb here.
Something interesting will happen around Movie rentals or purchases. I don’t know what, but there is another pattern forming here as well.

Things that will happen:

The iPod line up including the touch are going to get a refresher, larger storage is in order but the addition of a camera is going to be the most interesting item. I think they are also going to announce the end of life of the iPod classic.
Steve Jobs is going to be doing the keynote

Ok that’s it, what am I missing?

Mac OS X: Snow Leopard

Erik — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 02:18:14 +0000

I’ve got my copy of Snow Leopard pre-ordered, do you?

One delightful change: Snow Leopard takes up less than half the room on a hard disk that Leopard did, and Apple says the average user who upgrades will free up about 7 gigabytes of space. On my 2008-vintage MacBook Pro, I gained back a whopping 14 gigabytes. – Walt Mossberg, Apple Changes Leopard’s Spots

When was the last time you heard of a new OS install that took less than the previous version? Apple does more by doing less. Again.

No related posts.

Predictions on the upcoming Apple Tablet

Erik — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 18:17:05 +0000

There have been a lot of rumors on the upcoming “Apple tablet” and a few reports as to what it’s going to look like and be capable of but so far none of them have me totally convinced. Unfortunately I haven’t been able to totally convince myself either on what exactly this new device from Apple is going to look like either but I do have two predictions for what is coming.

First there are a few things I think that will hold true no matter what.

Apple is not going to call this thing the “Apple Tablet”.
- Nor are they going to call it the iTablet or anything even remotely similar to that. There is no reason to call this a tablet when all the tablet computers that have preceded it have sucked. Why associate this product with that legacy?
Release date depends on what happens [edited aug 14th]
- I thought more about the possibilities and now think that the release date is dependent on which posability comes true. If Apple is pursuing the iPod Touch XL idea, then I think they are going to shoot for Nov. of 2009, if it’s the MacBook Touch, then I think early 2010 is more realistic.
They will release in November
- Most of us know that November is the ideal time to release a product for the holiday season. It’s too obvious to not assume that Apple is gearing up to take advantage of this in the hopes that they have the must have gadget of the holiday season. Apple does have a media event scheduled for September but don’t be fooled, this event will focus on iTunes and Apple music and video store advancements.
It will come with an Ecosystem
- To support the low cost point they are going to be shooting for there will be a fully baked ecosystem of peripherals, software and solutions announced at the same time. It won’t just be a new iPod or MacBook. Expect that all AppStore applications will run on it and a new category of apps to be announced. Part of this ecosystem means that it will also integrate with your existing Apple products such as a iMac or MacBook as well as the Apple TV and introduce a whole new way of interacting with your computer and devices.
Hardware Basics
- No matter how powerful or large the device is, or what types of applications it runs, it’s going to have good battery life, a microphone, camera, bluetooth and WiFi.

Beyond those four common things however my two predictions start to diverge. Below are my two predictions for the upcoming Apple tablet and the reasons behind my thoughts. Let me know in the comments which one you think is most likely to become a reality.

Possibility 1: The Apple iPod Touch XL

Cost: About $599-$699 dollars, release in November 2009

Apple isn’t building this thing for computer users or create a new class of computer to sell along side they MacBooks., they want to create a new category all together that can sit at the top of their iPod product line. To do that they are not going to call this thing the “Apple Tablet” or the iTablet or anything even remotely similar to that. There is no reason to call this a tablet when all the tablet computers that have preceded it have sucked. Why associate this product with that legacy?

If Apple goes this direction and I think that there is a slightly better chance that the iPod Touch XL is the more likely of the two options then the CrunchPad is in for even more of a challenge. I think the idea of a Touch XL is more likely because of all the rumors about form factor and design pointing in this direction and The iPod Touch product line is well past due in getting any attention. This all makes me think the Touch team has been focused on a new product. On the flip side I want Apple to make their new device something more capable, hence let me introduce possibility 2, the MacBook Touch.

Possibility 2: The Apple MacBook Touch

Cost:$799-899 dollars, release in early 2010

This will be Apples answer to the Netbook craze and the markets demand for a lower cost Apple computer. Expect Apple to offer at least two models to choose from with different CPU/RAM and Storage options. Apple will also release some sort of monitor/peripheral docking option perhaps like this at the same time as an accessory. This form factor and docking station will make this the perfect computer for ultra mobile users such as students and business users who travel a lot.

No matter which option you think is going to come true, either device will do what Apple always does well. It will be a very sexy device that offers a great user experience and is perfect for watching movies on the plane, browsing the web or banging out a few notes or e-mails with an on-screen keyboard will be “good enough” to keep most people happy. Or so we all hope, only time will tell, what do you think?

The Impending Failure of the TechCrunch CrunchPad

Erik — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 22:51:14 +0000

Have you heard of the CrunchPad? It’s the brainchild of Michael Arrington of TechCrunch fame and despite having created what looks to be a very attractive device that would look great on my couch the device is going to be an absolute failure.

Let me be clear, I’m not rooting for this failure. The folks at Fusion Garage have clearly put a lot of energy into the device but the stars are just not aligned. Predicting the failure of the CrunchPad was not as easy as my perdiction of the Palm Foleo failure mind you. There isn’t just one or two large issues that stick out like the Foleo but rather it’s a cascade of multiple events and minor mistakes that contribute to the CrunchPads coming failure.

This cascading failure effect is best studied in the airline industry but the same effect applies to other complex system and the creation of a new computing tablet is no different. Let’s review the design and product decisions and market observations of the CrunchPad to see the cascade effect in action and perhaps we might find a way to save the CrunchPad.

CrunchPad design

The CrunchPad was originally billed as a low cost, drop dead simple to use device for one purpose – surfing the web. That’s a really good starting point but how committed are they to this goal? As we read more about the original ideas behind the CrunchPad and the posts that would come later you start to realize not nearly enough. Almost as soon as simplicity was the stated goal does Michael start adding things. I just need it to run Firefox, OK and then maybe Skype would be nice too, oh and put it on Linux, add a camera, some speakers, WiFi, a USB port…blah blah blah… OK stop. Yes these are simple things, but they add up. How did the original simplicity design goal go out the window and quickly devolve into a technology discussion? This is great for geeks, but pointless when creating a new gadget. At the end of the day I don’t care what OS it’s running, I don’t care what browser, I don’t care about ports or CPU or USB or anything else if it just does what I want it too. Don’t believe me? the iPhone didn’t run a mainstream OS, browser, have a multitude of plugs or ports and didn’t even advertise what CPU they used, it just worked and pretty much everyone now has one.

So how did they do in the end? I dug up all the specifications I could find and here is what I found.

CrunchPad Specs

Low cost
- Originally billed at $200 the price is now rumored to have risen to $400. This is about the price of a Netbook, not good.
Intel Atom 1.6Ghz
- Who cares? Can you tell me if it’s snappy and doesn’t lag? Watching the YouTube videos suggest that it’s not, notice the slow screen refresh and the choppy video performance, not good.
1GB of RAM
- Who cares? Do my web apps run fine? How many pages can I open at a time?
4GB of flash memory
- Seems kinda small, with local storage in HTML 5 or Google Gears supporting apps growing this could become a problem. Oh wait I’m talking like a geek again. Who cares? Can I run all my apps? Do I need more?
Linux as the OS
- A big HUGE who cares? I would even argue that this makes the device less attractive. Why? Because most people hear the word Linux and they think “Ugh, complex thing for geeks”. Look I’ve been using Linux since I first complied my own Slackware kernel in 1996 but when I play with Ubuntu or Fedora today I have to ask “WTF Linux people? Haven’t you had enough time to make this s%#t work right?”. Linux is awesome for my server, not my desktop, and for a no brains tablet, I’m nervous.
Boot directly into a custom (WebKit based) browser
- WebKit, fine choice. I thought you were going to use Firefox? Oh wait I forgot that I DON’T CARE. Does it render web pages right and just work?
Small OS Foot Print (100MB)
- This is a classic example of where a device manufacture takes one of their problems and markets it as a benefit and solution to some consumer problem. What problem exactly are you solving for me that requires a small OS foot print? Right…exactly.
WiFi
- Awesome…because without this it would just be pointless. You might want to add Bluetooth (but only if you remove a bunch of other stuff I list below)
Support for 3g/mobile broadband
- Nifty, hope you are negotiating a subsidy deal with the phone companies or that the electronics for all this are internal because having a 3G card sticking out the side doesn’t count.
Express Card slot
- There is no proof of this except from what I can make out in the pictures (which show one). I hope I’m wrong because of my previous point. Adding this violates the simplicity principal.
Keyboard and mouse support
- Why the hell do I want this? This thing isn’t a computer, it’s a handheld web tablet. Oh right the geeks demanded it, bad motivation.
USB Port
- Pointless. If this is a simple to use web tablet why do I need to be plugging in peripherals? Violates the simplicity directive.
Available in 4 colors
- It should be in any color the customer wants, as long as that color is black. Simplicity! Just because the factory can crank out multiple colors without introducing much cost doesn’t mean it’s a good idea. Is there a market reason for multiple colors? Just because you can build it doesn’t mean you should.
Weigh under 3 pounds (2.64?)
- Sounds about right, I hope most of it is devoted to battery.
12.77 by 7.83 inches, and 0.74 inch thick
- That’s just .02 inches smaller than the thickness of a MacBook Air and that thing has a keyboard and hard drive, so this seems a little large to me. As for the other dimensions that means it’s not as big as standard US letter piece of paper, this seems like a mistake to me.
12″ capacitative touchscreen
- I only want to know one thing. Multi-Touch? Yes or no? So far, the videos all say no. Not good.
Possible video camera and microphone
- Sure fine, but do I really need it? Simplicity!

Now you might be thinking I’m wrong to suggest that they remove things like keyboard and mouse support, USB port or express card slot because all those things would make this thing so much more useful but that’s not the point of this device. It’s supposed to be a simple to use web tablet that just works. Once you start adding peripheral ports you have to include drivers, which means installing things, which means things can break, which means that tablet isn’t so simple anymore and is for geeks. Is this thing meant to be a niche product for geeks?

Unknown Important Details

There are a few important details that have yet to be revealed, but the fact that they haven’t been mentioned up front worries me a lot. The following items should be top of mind to anyone thinking about buying a touchpad.

Battery life
- This has to be stellar, I mean really really stellar. Like 8 hours of use stellar
Responsiveness of the touch screen
- The difference between a touch screen that works and a product that makes you want to throw it out the window is so tiny that if this isn’t done right people will be throwing these things out the window or more likely, just not buying them
Multi-Touch support
- Yeah, there are patent issues here, but if it’s missing people will be asking why
Security and automated updating capabilities
- How secure is this thing? Does it keep itself up to date? Do I have to do anything? This needs to be all automated 100% away from the user.

CrunchPad Target Customer Profile

I don’t really know what the target customer is but since it’s being designed by technology journalist and geek and has been so far only marketed to geeks through the TechCrunch blog lets assume for the moment that the target customer is the TechCrunch reader. I’m sure they know a lot more about their readers than I do so I won’t spend much time on this but off the top of my head I would say this makes the target customer:

Technology savvy
Disposable Income
Want’s to stay on the couch. Too lazy to use the computer in the den.

This does not sound like a mass market customer profile to me, it’s definitely a profitable niche but will it support the kind of volume necessary to market and sell a consumer electronics product? I don’t know these answers, but I’m assuming they are thinking about this one a lot and is likely why the cost has gone up. The big problem here however is most geeks I know when they want to stay on the couch just pull out their SmartPhone which is good enough for them. If they are going to buy something that displaces this, it’s going to have a coolness factor all it’s own but most importantly, be cheap.

Market Observations

This is the big one, there has been a lot of interesting things going on since the CrunchPad was first announced in July of 2008, and in the case of Apple, even before it was first announced.

Google announces ChromeOS
- This one is HUGE. I originally was thinking that Google and TechCrunch had been working together from the start and that the CrunchPad was going to be the first device to sport the ChromeOS. Then I did my homework and realized this was just too good to be true. If however it was true it would be the greatest PR coup ever launched for both ChromeOS and the CrunchPad. It’s not too late to make this a reality either and it’s almost too perfect a union to not pass up. The challenge will be for the CrunchPad to fight the built up “technology inertia” they have already created for themselves (blog post on this concept coming soon) and throw away a lot of work already done to pursue ChromeOS.
Apple reportedly working on tablet
- lots of interesting patent applications from apple on this (tablet docking station as well as some sort of netbook dock in Jan 2008) not to mention huge rumors around the development of a Apple tablet computer. Apple understands simplicity in design and if the rumors are true will likely give the CrunchPad a run for it’s money. At the same time I actually expect Apple to release a device that is more functional than a simple tablet and not as simple as what a device like the CrunchPad could be. It will also almost certainly be at a higher price point, likely around 800 bucks. This is creates an opportunity for CrunchPad but also means that customers will likely wait to see what apple releases first before they buy something.
Lack of CrunchPad market ecosystem
- It’s not enough to just be a web surfing tablet. There needs to be an ecosystem created around this product that is released at the same time. I’ve got lots of ideas on what this could involve but the point is that no one seems to be thinking about it, not good for the CrunchPad.
Lack of experience in the consumer electronics industry
- I am on the fence about this one. Apple had zero experience in the mobile phone business and they figured it out. Smart people can do anything. At the same time, it’s not exactly a downhill race for them here either.

Summary to failure

So lets add up all these small cuts and see if we have enough to kill the patient:

Not low cost
Not holding true to the simplicity principal
Too focused on geeking out and talking about the technology
Too many colors.
No one is talking about critical important factors like battery life and security
Target market might be too small to support it
Google ChromeOS will overshadow any work they do on their platform and browser
Apple rumors of tablet will keep customers from buying and then they might just buy the Apple tablet instead

I think all of these things add up to only one outcome: market failure of the CrunchPad. However not all is lost, I think there are a few changes that CrunchPad could make that would better the odds of success.

Recommendations to CrunchPad

It’s going to be costly. The CrunchPad folks are going to have to throw away a lot of work and doing that is going to be very very hard to do. It’s a huge risk already and massive changes this late in the project are hard to swallow. However when the alternative is what I think is certain failure, the choice should be an easy. Unfortunately I don’t expect the CrunchPad folks to walk away from their work and make such hard decisions. However, Michael if you or any of the CrunchPad team is reading this here is what I recommend you think about.

Abandon your OS and browser platform, embrace Google ChromeOS immediately. The simultaneous release of the CrunchPad and ChromeOS will generate so much buzz it will be an unstoppable marketing force.
Remove everything from the CrunchPad that doesn’t need to be there. USB ports, express card slots, etc… Make the device as simple as you possibly can. Be ruthless.
Focus on battery life, ease of use, security and a broader market
Get the cost under $200 dollars otherwise Apple will eat your lunch

So CrunchPad guys, I’m sorry that it’s likely not going to work out. I was rooting for you because I’m a geek at heart but when I started thinking about everything I felt I had to be the bearer of bad news. I hope you don’t take it personal. Invite me up sometime and maybe we can work together to change the future because someone is going to get the web tablet right and sell a million of them, but right now I don’t think it’s going to be you.